A implied approach to profit in worldwide equity and futures markets, trading the markets like professional card counters are playing Blackjack or expert poker players are playing Poker. The key is to have the odds on your side and bet accordingly, knowing what, when, where, why and how much to bet on each trade or wager. FED announcement days, the last days before trading, …among others. This image clearly shows that trading is NOT about being right or wrong means just getting the direction of the move impliedbut all about making money effectiviness and efficiency. But how to take advantage of these findings will be subject to another posting. And may be some food for thought for your own analysis as well. The information on this site is provided for statistical and informational purposes only. Nothing herein should be interpreted or regarded as personalized investment advice or to state or imply that past results are an indication of future performance. The author of this website is not a licensed financial advisor and will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on the content of this website s. Implied no circumstances does this information represent an advice or recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Actions may have been taken before or after information is presented, and any opinions expressed in this site are subject to trading without notice. Data courtesy of MetaStock and Pinnacle Data Corp. I really appreciate am genuinely thankful for the work you do the studies you accomplish on Trading the Odds this volatility website. I just have one simple question requestwould it be possible or even probable, since volatility trade in probabilities: From my experience, the VIX is far, far different than its derivatives. As I posted a while back, the VIX has some dynamics unique to the fact that it is not an instrument that can be traded. As you point out yourself you have to trade the VIX via its derivatives — so why analyse the performance of buying and selling the VIX spot Index? With respect to your second question: Did you notice the last para. I neither own a crystal ball nor would I post volatility detail about something that gives me a real competitive edge trading the market if you know anybody who does — for free - please let me know. If you never here about timing the VIX again, its either because there is nothing to write home about, or volatility you know. If you find something new and interesting here, I recommend to build upon and do some math and analysis yourself. Please share your results as I do. The blog is all about ideas, strategies, statistics, not about customized solutions ready to trade. I appreciate the work you do at this page and that you share your insights and ideas. I did not try to imply you are stupid doing that or are wasting your or anyone elses time. I was just wondering how is does help you or implied to trade Volatility derivatives better. You partially answered that by saying by knowing what the VIX does you can predict better what VIX derivatives do. My mistake was to take that as a stand alone analysis rather than a first step — so Volatility hold on trading see whether you publish a follow trading or not if you found nothing worht reporting or found the holy grail of VIX trading and rather keep that for yourself. The blog is about ideas, concepts, strategies, and so on. I love to see such analysis anywhere else on the blogospehre e. Go long short the VIX when the x-day EMA of the VIX closed under over the day SMA is absolutely correct. The day EMA is moving faster than the day SMA, leave alone the 3-day EMA. I think we should focus on VIX and its etps differences to find the best filter to trade them. It seems to be a nice idea but if you use the old VXO as a proxy and extend the data to you would simply volatility wiped out overnight. It is a rare event indeed. But never forget that you could be destroyed all of a sudden when betting on the mean reversion of volatility: In the original Marketsci setting I think you would go short VIX as there was an big increase in VIX before Monday if my codes are right. If you could short the actual VIX with a leverage of 1 you would be wiped out. If you short VIX futures you would have a negative asset. I am not saying it is not an useful idea. But it needs to be played with caution and a trading bet with SVXY might be the best choice as you will not lose more than your initial bet. Timing and trading the VIX is for statistical purposes only in order to proove if it provides an edge trading XIV and VXX. Very interesting, but I must confess I am confused by some of your nomenclature. Can you explain this:. Are you deriving a new metric volatility is made up of the VIX and VXMT and applying the EMA and SMA on that derived metric? VIX at 20, VXMT at At the end the VIX is artificially reduced when in contango VIX VXMTintensifying a mean reversion behaviour. Then so your best to extrapolate that data back to or earlier. I assumed you were buying some type of leverage of VIX at 1. The equation and intent is not clear. For every day, calculate: Then take the 3-day exponential moving average of these values. This represents the 3-day-EMA of … The day simple moving average SMA of the Implied should be clear. And volatility you take a look at the images s: Tradable asset is the VIX hypothetical results, of course, the VIX is NOT a tradable asset. I am curious what monte carlo analysis might offer, e. Also, have you found any results using the futures contract or etfs based on it? Trading am believe that Today ia a Buy in vxx,vxz,vix have a divergence with them,but this is not reason. The cycle natural active i have study,this is private,lt is the reason,this happen medium 2 to month. I am buy 23 march vxx but here can go second buy,the Buy cancel if today have a strong up in vxx. Remember 16 october or 17 december ,the same. Normally when VIX goes up VXX goes up and vice versa. For some reason the strategy turns from a exeptional strategy to a non profitable. I think that, compared to a VRP strategy e. Would be interested though, to see the number of trades and underwater curves. I have tried to implied your results using the formulas and during my balance goes negative. I am using closing prices to caclulate the 3 day ema and your volatility. Did you have a severe drawdown during this timeframe as well? The drawdowns are horrific. The reverse happens right after a big spike, the system puts you into a long trade that you ride all the way down. Implied application of at least one or a combination of those measurements listed above should help. Still on my list of open issues …. Your email address will not be published. If the information provided is helpful for your own trading business, any donation to my Be it! Children's Charitable Foundation is much appreciated. To make a long story short: Image I shows the respective equity curves: Sunday, January 18, at Monday, January 19, at 4: Friday, January 23, at 4: Friday, January 23, at implied Sunday, January 25, at 2: Sunday, January 25, at 6: Monday, January 19, at 8: Monday, January 19, at Monday, January 19, at 1: Timing Trading Trading Implied Volatility XLNtrading says: Monday, January 19, at 2: Tuesday, January 20, at 1: Tuesday, January 20, at 2: Tuesday, January 20, at 5: Tuesday, January 20, at 4: Tuesday, January 20, at 6: Wednesday, January 21, at 6: Sunday, January 25, at Friday, March 27, at 8: Wednesday, June 3, at 4: Wednesday, June 3, at 8: Thursday, June 4, at 9: Saturday, June 6, at 7: Sunday, June 7, at 4: Wednesday, June 24, at 7: Thursday, June 25, at 4: Thursday, October 29, at 8: Friday, October 30, at 8: Trading here to cancel reply. Leave a Implied Cancel reply Your email address will not volatility published. 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Why Implied Volatility Is The Key To Your "Edge" Trading Options - Show #007
Why Implied Volatility Is The Key To Your "Edge" Trading Options - Show #007
In this program, Cronkite would interview the major players, for.
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These are a great way to get involved in a community of other students who transferred.